2015 Asia - Telecom Forecasts

Last updated: 28 Jan 2015 Update History

Report Status: Archived

Report Pages: 73

Analyst: Peter Evans

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Summary
Table Of Contents

Publication Overview

Providing a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in an extensive range of markets in Asia, this market report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments. This edition covers 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in relatively early subscriber growth phases.

The countries covered in this report include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

Researchers:- Peter Evans
Current publication date:- January 2015 (18th Edition)

Executive Summary

As the mobile market across Asia shifts to new generation services, growth in total mobile subscriber numbers moderates

The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we consider to be the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country and market segment.

The scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2015 and 2020.

Malaysia – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020

Year	Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2011	4.1	14.2%	4.1	14.2%
2012	3.9	13.3%	3.9	13.3%
2013 (actual)	3.7	12.6%	3.7	12.6%
2015	3.5	11.8%	3.9	13.1%
2020	3.2	9.8%	4.3	13.2%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Malaysia – Forecast broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2020

Year	Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
Year	Subscribers¹ (million)	HH Penetration	Subscribers¹ (million)	HH Penetration
2011	5.7	62%	5.7	62%
2012	6.4	66%	6.4	66%
2013 (actual)	6.4	67%	6.4	67%
2015	8.0	70%	13.5	75%
2020	11.0	80%	22.0	100%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Note: ¹includes all fixed and mobile wireless broadband subscribers

Malaysia – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020

Year	Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2011	36.7	128%	36.7	128%
2012	41.3	142%	41.3	142%
2013 (actual)	43.0	145%	43.0	145%
2015	45.0	148%	49.0	161%
2020	50.0	152%	60.0	182%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year

1. Background Notes Relevant to our Market Forecasts
2. Afghanistan
- 2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 2.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 2.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
3. Azerbaijan
- 3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 3.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 3.3 Forecasts –mobile market – 2015; 2020
4. Bangladesh
- 4.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 4.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 4.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
5. Cambodia
- 5.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 5.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 5.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
6. China
- 6.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2013-2018
- 6.2 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2013-2018
- 6.3 Forecast: Total mobile subscribers 2013-2014; 2018
- 6.4 Forecast: 3G mobile subscribers
7. Georgia
- 7.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- 7.2 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- 7.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
8. Hong Kong
- 8.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2014; 2018
- 8.2 Forecast broadband subscribers: - 2014; 2018
- 8.3 Forecast total mobile and 3G subscribers – 2014; 2018
9. India
- 9.1 Forecasts - fixed-line services – 2015; 2020
- 9.2 Forecasts- internet services – 2015; 2020
- 9.3 Forecasts - Mobile services – 2015; 2020
10. Indonesia
- 10.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market: 2015; 2020
- 10.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 10.3 Forecasts – mobile market: 2015; 2020
11. Japan
- 11.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2013 - 2014; 2018
- 11.2 Forecast broadband subscribers: 2012-2013; 2017
- 11.3 Forecast FttX subscribers: 2017; 2020
- 11.4 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2012-2018
12. Kazakhstan
- 12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 12.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 12.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
13. Kyrgyzstan
- 13.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 13.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 13.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
14. Laos
- 14.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 14.2 Forecasts – internet services - 2015; 2020
- 14.3 Forecasts – mobile services - 2015; 2020
15. Macau
- 15.1 Forecast mobile subscribers – 2014; 2018
16. Malaysia
- 16.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- 16.2 Forecasts – broadband internet services – 2015; 2020
- 16.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
17. Nepal
- 17.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 17.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
- 17.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
18. Pakistan
- 18.1 Forecast – fixed line market – 2015; 2020
- 18.2 Forecasts – Internet market – 2015; 2020
- 18.3 Forecast – mobile market – 2015; 2020
19. Philippines
- 19.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 19.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
- 19.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
20. South Korea
- 20.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2012 - 2013; 2017
- 20.2 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2012; 2017
- 20.3 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2012- 2013; 2017
21. Sri Lanka
- 21.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 21.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
- 21.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
22. Taiwan
- 22.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2013 (actual); 2014 and 2018
- 22.2 Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – 2013 (actual); 2014, 2018
- 22.3 Forecast total mobile subscribers – 2013 (actual); 2014, 2018
- 22.4 Forecast 3G mobile subscribers – 2013 (actual); 2014, 2018
23. Thailand
- 23.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- 23.2 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- 23.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
24. Uzbekistan
- 24.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 24.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 24.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
25. Vietnam
- 25.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 25.2 Forecasts – broadband internet services – 2015; 2020
- 25.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
- Table 1 – Afghanistan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 2 – Afghanistan – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 3 – Afghanistan – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 4 – Azerbaijan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 5 – Azerbaijan – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 6 – Azerbaijan – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 7 – Bangladesh – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 8 – Bangladesh – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 9 – Bangladesh – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 10 – Cambodia – Forecast fixed-line growth – 2015; 2020
- Table 11 – Cambodia – Forecast fixed internet subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
- Table 12 – Cambodia – Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
- Table 13 – China – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2014; 2018
- Table 14 – China – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2014; 2018
- Table 15 – China – Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration – lower band: 2014; 2018
- Table 16 – China – Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration – higher band: 2014; 2018
- Table 17 – China – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast - 2014; 2018
- Table 18 – China – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2014; 2018
- Table 19 – China – Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and share of mobile market – 2013 - 2014, 2018
- Table 20 – Georgia – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 21 – Georgia – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 22 – Georgia – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 23 – Hong Kong – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band – 2014; 2018
- Table 24 – Hong Kong – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band – 2014; 2018
- Table 25 – Hong Kong – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: - 2014; 2018
- Table 26 – Hong Kong – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: - 2014; 2018
- Table 27 – Hong Kong – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2014; 2018
- Table 28 – Hong Kong – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2014; 2018
- Table 29 – India – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 30 – India – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 31 – India – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 32 – Indonesia – Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 33 – Indonesia – Forecast of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 34 – Indonesia – Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 35 – Japan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – 2014; 2018
- Table 36 – Japan – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2014; 2018
- Table 37 – Japan – Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2017; 2020
- Table 38 – Japan – Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2017; 2020
- Table 39 – Japan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – 2014; 2018
- Table 40 – Kazakhstan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 41 – Kazakhstan – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 42 – Kazakhstan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 43 – Kyrgyzstan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 44 – Kyrgyzstan – Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 45 – Kyrgyzstan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 46 – Laos – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 47 – Laos – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 48 – Laos – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 49 – Macau – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: - 2014; 2018
- Table 50 – Macau – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: - 2014; 2018
- Table 51 – Malaysia – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 52 – Malaysia – Forecast broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 53 – Malaysia – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 54 – Nepal – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 55 – Nepal – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 56 – Nepal – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 57 – Pakistan – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 58 – Pakistan – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 59 – Pakistan – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 60 – Philippines – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 61 – Philippines – Forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 62 – Philippines – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 63 – South Korea – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
- Table 64 – South Korea – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
- Table 65 – South Korea – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
- Table 66 – South Korea – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
- Table 67 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2011 - 2012; 2017
- Table 68 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2011 - 2012; 2017
- Table 69 – Sri Lanka – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
- Table 70 – Sri Lanka – Forecast fixed internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
- Table 71 – Sri Lanka – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
- Table 72 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2014; 2018
- Table 73 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2014; 2018
- Table 74 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 (actual), 2014; 2018
- Table 75 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 (actual); 2014; 2018
- Table 76 – Taiwan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2014; 2018
- Table 77 – Taiwan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2014; 2018
- Table 78 – Taiwan – Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2014; 2018
- Table 79 – Taiwan – Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2014; 2018
- Table 80 – Thailand – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
- Table 81 – Thailand – Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration – 2015; 2020
- Table 82 – Thailand – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate –2015; 2020
- Table 83 – Uzbekistan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 84 – Uzbekistan – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 85 – Uzbekistan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 86 – Vietnam – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 87 – Vietnam – Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 88 – Vietnam – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020

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