2010 Germany - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Germany - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in Europe’s largest telecom market.

Germany’s broadband and mobile penetration are on a par with the EU average. Growth in the number of mobile subscribers (at more than 108 million, giving a penetration rate of about 130%) is chiefly attributable to the increased use of SIM cards for mobile Internet access. The substantial customer base is also the prop supporting the enormous growth in mobile data: operators report 45% annual growth in the volume of data transported on upgraded networks, though stiff competition between the MNOs, together with regulated roaming and interconnection tariffs, has meant that revenue growth is considerably lower. T-Mobile and Vodafone have both tested Long-term evolution technology, while the government has specifically pushed for frequencies in the 800MHz band, freed from the switch to digital broadcasting, to be made available for mobile broadband in its bid to guarantee 1Mb/s broadband to all households by the end of 2010.

In the broadband market, Deutsche Telekom remains dominant in DSL sector, though other notable players including freenet, Vodafone and Telefónica have gained market share: the top six providers account for about 90% of DSL subscriptions. The co-operation between players in the extension of VDSL networks will have substantial repercussions in the next few years as higher bandwidth services become available to a greater number of subscribers. This will include a wider choice of HD channels, as well as emerging 3D formats. Nevertheless, DSL remains a poor cousin to cable in transmission bandwidth: although the cable operators’ broadband market share remains relatively low – at about 10% – a number of cablecos now provide services at up to 120Mb/s, based on the EuroDOCSIS 3.0 standard. These will become more extensively available during 2011 as the main players KDG, Unitymedia and Kabel BW continue to invest in their networks. In 2009 alone, cablecos collectively invested an estimated €700 million in network upgrades to extend bundled services provision.

Digital terrestrial TV has progressed swiftly, and all broadcasters should end their analogue transmissions by April 2012. By mid-2010 about 80% of all satellite TV households watched digital DTH, while 55% of all households had access to digital TV. The regulator in April 2010 auctioned the first tranche of digital dividend spectrum for use by other services.

Germany – key telecom parameters – 2009; 2011

(Source: BuddeComm)

Market highlights:

• In common with other European markets, telecom investment in 2010 and 2011 will be focussed on the broadband and mobile sectors as operators continue to upgrade networks and compete for subscribers. Telecom revenue fell sharply in 2009 in the wake of the economic crisis, but should recover marginally during 2010 and more strongly thereafter, largely bolstered by consumer spending on mobile data and broadband.
• Mobile broadband should make significant progress by the end of 2010 as the first LTE-based networks come on-stream for consumers. This may significantly alter consumer use of mobile data offers, with a greater emphasis on mobile broadband as a substitute for fixed-line access.
• Germany’s fibre sector can expect to see considerable development in 2010 and 2011 as DT pushes its revamped strategy, moving beyond the current focus on VDSL to FttH. The company planned to invest more than €10 billion in a new fibre access network to 2013, providing GPON FttH to four million households, or 10% of all German households, by 2012.
• With analogue switch-off on schedule, mobile broadband stands to be the major beneficiary after 2012 from auctioned sub-GHz spectrum.

For those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecommunications sector in Germany, this report is essential reading and gives further information on:

• Developments in the digital broadcast market, IPTV and VoD;
• Market liberalisation and regulatory issues;
• The impact of the global economic crisis;
• Telecoms operators – privatisation, acquisitions, new licences;
• Internet and broadband development and growth;
• VoIP, IPTV, VoD, digital TV and DTTV;
• Historical and current subscriber statistics;
• Average Revenue per User (ARPU) statistics and forecasts.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.