Virus impact over each market - telecom operators, government agencies and regulators' responses - revised forecasts for the next 5 years.
Last updated: 17 Apr 2020 Update History
Report Pages: 98
Analyst: Sebastien De Rosbo
Macau boasts a sophisticated, independently regulated communications market. Gradual liberalisation has now fully opened the telecoms market with the full impact slowly becoming evident.
Fixed line subscriptions in Macau continue to fall. Macau’s fixed-line market is transitioning to a fibre broadband market as CTM invests significantly in fibre access networks, a project made possible given Macau’s high population density.
Fixed-line broadband market penetration has grown slowly over the past five years in a highly mature market. Over the next five years to 2023 growth is expected to further subside, as the remainder of the ADSL customers are predicted to migrate to fibre access.
Competition is intense in Macau’s mobile market, with four mobile network operators and a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) offering services. All four operators offer 4G LTE services.
Mobile subscriber and mobile penetration rates are high, exceeding 300%; this high figure is due to the in excess of 20 million visitors that visit Macau annually as well as the usage of multiple sim cards by mobile subscribers. Mobile broadband has presented mobile operators with an additional revenue growth opportunity, driving investment in 4G LTE and 5G networks.
Following the introduction of the global 5G standard, CTM has begun testing 5G wireless technology. If the 5G license and spectrum arrangements progress well, 5G in Macau will synchronize with the neighbouring regions which plan to launch 5G services for commercial use in 2020.
Macau’s smart city project is being developed outside mainland China. This project will span different areas such as transportation, medical services, tourism and e-government.
BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020 is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.
On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.
Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.
The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.
Companhia de Telecomunicações de Macau (CTM), MTel, Macau Cable TV, Macau Basic Television Channels Limited, MOOV, KKBox, Soliton, SmarTone, 3 Macau, China Telecom.
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David Brown, Ventura Team
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